Pullback and continuation: why breakout trading loses so often
Video in Russian “Причина сливов на пробоях”, 10 October 2026, 10:52.
What the video is about
The video explains the pullback-and-continuation study: a pool forms in one time window, gets swept in another, and after the sweep a pullback of one size and a continuation of another are looked for.
In the example the 18:00–02:00 pool is swept at 03:00–10:00 New York; a 0.2% pullback and 0.5% continuation within 90 minutes occurred in about 25% of cases — one day out of four.
The author's conclusion: typical breakout trading at best gave a weak continuation in about half of the cases, and 100% on four cases in five years proves nothing. The video is in Russian.
Key claims
- The study sets the pool formation window (T0–T1), the sweep window (T2–T3), the pullback size and the continuation size; the waiting time ranges from 15 to 90 minutes.
- Pool 18:00–02:00, sweep 03:00–10:00 New York, a 0.2% pullback and 0.5% continuation within 90 minutes: this scenario occurred in about 25% of cases (data as of 10 October 2026).
- A 0.5% continuation after any pullback was reached in only eight cases across all observations for the pools shown (data as of 10 October 2026).
- The author considers a 100% result on four cases in five years unreliable: the sample is too small.
- With a small pullback and small continuation, the 18:00–22:00 pool had about 80 cases, and in roughly half of them the continuation happened (data as of 10 October 2026).
- Algo levels, in the author's words, are carefully computed volatility typical for the asset at the chosen time.
Chapters
- 0:00 — What pullback and continuation mean
- 1:44 — Example: 18:00–02:00 pool, 03:00–10:00 sweep
- 3:01 — 0.2% pullback and 0.5% continuation: 25% of cases
- 3:50 — Breakout trading and small samples
- 4:51 — A more realistic scenario
- 6:42 — Experimental features
- 8:03 — What algo levels are
- 9:08 — Checking in the tester and the trade journal
Transcript
The video is in Russian. The full Russian transcript is on the Russian page.
Questions about the video
What are pullback and continuation?
A pullback is a move back after a pool sweep by a set size; continuation is the following move in the sweep direction. Both are awaited within a set time, for example up to 90 minutes.
Why does 100% on a small sample mean nothing?
Four cases in five years is too few: such a scenario comes about once a year, and the next case may go differently. Look at the number of cases, not only the share.
Is it free?
The tester is free; the Research module and advanced analytics are part of Pro. What the free tester includes is on the Access page.
How to read the numbers
Numbers are given as stated in the video on the recording date, 10 October 2026. After Research studies are recomputed they may differ.
Historical frequencies are not individual investment advice and do not guarantee repetition. Hypothetical results do not reflect real trading (CFTC Rule 4.41 principle).
Next: how it is computed, glossary, all videos.
Author — Georg Vahi · Video published 10 October 2026